Friday, July 18, 2014

Are Millennial Marketers More Analytical?

I had an interesting conversation this week with a vendor of marketing measurement systems on the question of why more marketers won’t buy his type of software. After all, surveys often show that marketers and CEOs alike rate better measurement as a high priority. Yet actual measurement techniques don’t improve much from year to year: to cite the most recent report to cross my desk, the 2014 State of Marketing Measurement Survey Report from Ifbyphone found that 45% of marketers are measuring Return on Investment in 2014 vs. 40% in 2013 -- a gain that is probably within the survey's margin of error.  Other, simpler measures are more common and growing more quickly, but that’s exactly the point: marketers don’t invest in meaningful performance measures like ROI.


My vendor friend’s suspicion was that marketers don’t buy better measurement because, whatever they say in surveys, they really don’t want to be measured. My own opinion, based on comments from marketers over the years, is they don’t have time to put advanced measurement systems in place.

Of course, time is a matter of prioritization, so this really means that marketers think the time spent on an advanced measurement project will produce less value than if that time were spent on something else.  In other words, marketers don’t invest in advanced measurement because they don’t think the resulting information will drive enough improvement in their marketing results.  That's not an unreasonable belief: much ROI information is in fact interesting but not actionable and, therefore, adds no business value.  Further evidence: the advanced measurement techniques that have been widely adopted, like marketing mix models and multi-touch attribution, all have proven bottom-line impact. The impact of marketing ROI, on the other hand, is often less clear.

Then our conversation took an unexpected turn: the vendor speculated that younger marketers might be more analytical and hence more inclined to ROI measurement.  This was a new thought to me and offered the cheery prospect of an actual change from the long-term status quo. But neither of us had seen any research on the topic, so we couldn’t judge whether it was likely to be true.  End of discussion.

I’ve since had time to look into this more deeply. There’s plenty of research on millennials’ (currently 19-34 years old) in general and a fair amount on their behavior in the workplace. Most of it reinforces familiar stereotypes: millenials are collaborative, tech-savvy, results-focused, fast-working, multi-tasking, anti-hierarchical, socially-conscious, company-disloyal, and of course digitally connected. But none of the research shed much light on whether they’re more or less analytical than older generations: since they’re skeptical of authority, you can expect them to be more open to challenging past assumptions, but this doesn’t necessarily mean they rely on data to resolve those challenges. They could just as easily rely on what feels right to them, even though they’ve had little time to sharpen their intuitions on the stone of reality.  Even their presumed affinity for digital media, which is certainly more measurable than traditional media, doesn’t necessarily translate to an interest in ROI measurement. Indeed, most digital measurements such as Web traffic and social media interactions have almost nothing to do with ROI.  Finding that millennials rely heavy on them would bode poorly for advanced measurement methods.

But all of this is just speculation, and I am definitely a fact-based kinda guy. Has anyone seen any information on how marketers’ behaviors differ by generation? If not, would you find it an interesting topic for a survey?

2 comments:

  1. The following was submitted by Damian Roskill...
    "My vendor friend’s suspicion was that marketers don’t buy better measurement because, whatever they say in surveys, they really don’t want to be measured. My own opinion, based on comments from marketers over the years, is they don’t have time to put advanced measurement systems in place."

    I don't think either is quite right (although you are closer to the answer). The simple truth is that B2B marketing (where most of this stuff sells) has complex sales cycles where it is very difficult to measure. As an example, my group recently analyzed all the completed enterprise level deals we closed in Q2. While Marketo (our chosen tool) helped, we still has to go talk to sales people and do a bunch of data analysis to determine the history of a lead-to-close.

    So the problem of B2B is that many companies live in a complex attribution space - often a place of what I call "snowflakes" - where every deal is a little bit different.

    If you happen to be running a simple SaaS business, then getting to such answers might be easier - but for us, the answers are nuanced and complex, and difficult to tease out of rigid software platforms.

    So in my opinion it isn't that people don't want the answer, it is that the answer is much more complex and, as you rightly point out, requires a great deal more time to analyze than you thought. The final problem is that if you have a low number of deals, it may be very difficult to draw any huge conclusion about ROI where every deal looks a little bit different.

    "Then our conversation took an unexpected turn: the vendor speculated that younger marketers might be more analytical and hence more inclined to ROI measurement."

    I'd say yes and no - yes, there's more of a focus on ROI, but in general I find that young marketers lack crucial skills to answer these questions. They also tend to lack a statistical rigor and knowledge that I think are critical to getting to the right answer. So they're good at recommending A/B testing, but if you ask if the test is statistically valid, they suddenly don't have an answer. This is a key area of training that college should be providing to young marketers.

    Thanks for the article David - great as usual!

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  2. Thanks Damian. My experience with young marketers has also been that they are not especially analytical or particularly versed in statistical methodologies, but I don't know that I'd attribute that to anything generational. It's more a matter of general experience and lack of training. They'll presumably learn as they get older, or at least the smart ones will. Let's not stereotype an entire generation.

    I'm not sure the complexity of B2B sales cycles really explains disinterest in ROI measurement. It's true that some companies have relatively few deals, but big companies do have enough, and even those with few closed deals have many more inquiries and opportunities, which gives them a larger base to assess. You might not be able to get very precise estimates of incremental impact from such small volumes, but you do get a sense of what seems productive and what does not.

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